What the Maps Tell Us: Initial Findings

Analyzing access to home loans is complex, but the spatial distributions depicted in the Number of Applicants for FHA Loans and Number of Applicants for Conventional Loans maps are striking. If we compare the patterns to the Atlas’ income maps, we find that the applications for FHA loans tend to be concentrated in areas with lower median incomes, while the applications for conven­tional loans tend to be concentrated in areas with higher incomes. The census tracts with the highest numbers of applications for FHA loans are in a ring outside of the region’s urban core in census tracts located in and adjacent to cities such as Gresham, Sandy, Happy Valley, Oregon City, Camas, and portions of Vancouver, Hillsboro, Beaverton, Forest Grove, Sherwood, and Tualatin. The census tracts with the lowest numbers of FHA loans are in Portland’s northwest, southwest and inner east sides, Lake Oswego, and unincorporated areas of all four counties.

The census tracts with the highest number of applications for conventional loans are scattered across the region in parts of Happy Valley, Camas, Lake Oswego, a small slice of northwest Portland and the adjacent unincorporated area, and in portions of Sherwood, Tigard, Beaverton, and Hillsboro. The areas with the lowest numbers of conventional loan applications are also scattered across the region. In some places the highest rates of conventional loan applications are in areas with higher median home values and incomes, but this pattern does not hold true throughout the map. This is partially because the number of applications may be higher in places with high levels of housing development and/or high levels of turnover in ownership through foreclosure or other means (and therefore a high number of applications for loans in general) during the period covered by the data. This may explain why Happy Valley, for example, includes census tracts with the highest rates of both FHA and conventional loan applications.

The Home Loan Denials (White) and Home Loan Denials (non-White) maps are difficult to interpret because home loan applications can be denied for a wide range of reasons. The maps show definite patterns, but further analysis of additional data would be necessary in order to determine the reason for the patterns. The most noticeable pattern is that the number of census tracts with high rates of home loan denials for non-white applicants is greater than the number with high rates of home loan denials for white applicants. Furthermore, the map of denials to non-white applicants includes census tracts where 50-100% of applicants were denied, whereas the highest rate of denials to white applicants is 20.1-31%. However, it is also important to note that in some census tracts with high rates of denials, the total number of applications was quite small.

Looking at the geographic distribution of home loan denials, the rate of denials to white applicants appears to be relatively low in many of the region’s higher income areas. This includes many of Portland’s west and inner east side neighborhoods, and parts of Lake Oswego, West Linn, Wilsonville, Sherwood, Tigard, Beaverton, and Hillsboro. The highest rates of denial to white applicants tend to be in a few large census tracts on the periphery of the region as well as a few small census tracts located in areas closer to the urban core.

The rate of home loan denials to non-white applicants varies quite a bit from census tract to census tract across the region. Many cities have census tracts with low rates of denial located next to census tracts with high rates of denial. The areas with the most consistent low denial rates include census tracts in and adjacent to Sandy, Wilsonville, and unincorporated areas of Clackamas, Washington, and Clark counties.

The Foreclosures (Percent Notice of Transfer Sale) map shows the highest rates of foreclosures in zip codes located in a ring around the urban core. This includes zip codes in and adjacent to Hillsboro, Tigard, Oregon City, parts of north and outer east Portland, Gresham, and an area on the northeast edge of Vancouver. As with the home loan denial maps, there are many potential reasons why a home may go into foreclosure. Further analysis of the foreclosures in these hotspots would be necessary in order to fully understand these patterns.